"A tour de force..." Nikkei Recommends My Book

“This is a tour de force” is how the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) began its review of the Japanese translation of my book, The Contest for Japan’s Economic Future. And, for a little while, the endorsement sent the book to the stratosphere of the sales ranking. Of the millions of books sold on Amazon.co.jp., this book briefly ranked #313 and, in the money and business category, a stunning #102.

It is so gratifying that my message of hope, and practical solutions, is meeting such a welcome response in Nikkei, other media, and among the Japanese influencers I met during my recent trip. One of the book's primary purposes was to counter the fatalism (shikata ga nai) that makes so many in Japan believe real reform is a hopeless cause. Undoubtedly, it’s an uphill climb. But the book not only points out practical solutions but also shows the major trends in society and the economy that create a real opportunity of implementing these solutions. If Japan could build a dynamic economy before, as in the “economic miracle” days, it can do so again.

None of the major reviews used cultural or other arguments to claim my proposals were unfeasible. On the contrary, they accentuated the real potential for revival. Nikkei concluded its review, “It is necessary for each and every citizen to understand the problems and take an interest in policies in order to change politics and society. This book will give you some hints on how to do that.” Shukan Gendai concluded its review: “The key to reviving the Japanese economy is to shift policy from preserving stagnant zombie companies and protecting elephants [old stodgy companies] to nurturing young, vibrant gazelle companies. With political will, it is by no means impossible to break away from the ‘lost 30 years.’ This is a hopeful story.” Yomiuri began its review: “ ‘I wanted to convey to lawmakers and bureaucrats in an easy-to-understand manner that this is how to restore Japan's economy. I presented a positive scenario.’ A journalist well-versed in Japanese affairs spoke powerfully about the purpose of compiling this book.” Toyo Keizai headlined its review: “Why an American journalist with a pro-Japan perspective is convinced that the idea that ‘Japanese people lack entrepreneurial spirit’ is a myth.”

The optimistic view that revival is economically and politically possible is by no means sufficient to bring it about, but it is a necessary ingredient in the reform recipe.

I include the original Japanese below, but first, here is Google’s translation.

This is a tour de force in which an American journalist who has been covering and researching the Japan economy for many years discusses the structural causes of the Japan economic downturn and the prescriptions necessary for its revival. It depicts the current state of the economy, its historical background, and comparisons with other countries from various angles with actual interviews, and makes frank criticisms of existing policies and corporate management stances from a neutral and objective standpoint, and makes feasible policy recommendations. He compares the types of companies to animals, and uses a journalist's unique way of speaking and excellent translations to explain complex issues in an easy-to-understand manner.

According to the author, the economic system needs to adapt to changes in the environment, but Japan has been slow to adapt to changes since the end of high economic growth in the 1970s. The root cause of the “lost 30 years” lies in such structural problems, and the bursting of the bubble economy was merely a sudden manifestation of accumulated contradictions. The author points out that the most important factors for economic revival are the metabolism of industry, that is, the elimination of inefficient firms and the revitalization of entrepreneurship in areas with growth potential. To this end, it is necessary to shift financial and human resources to start-up companies, and at the same time, to develop a public safety net that allows society to tolerate such structural changes, or “creative destruction.”

Nonetheless, policy over the past 30 years has focused on macroeconomic stimulus to soften shocks and preserve economically inefficient sectors. Although some reforms were implemented, the pace was slow and small, so it could not keep up with the deterioration of the economy. Some, such as the increase in the number of non-regular workers due to deregulation of the labor market, have had a negative effect on people's incomes and long-term economic growth.

Japanese are by no means just a “conservative and conformist” people symbolized by lifetime employment and seniority. As the history of miraculous economic development due to the Meiji Restoration and the post-war entrepreneurial boom shows, it should have the power to prosper by demonstrating an entrepreneurial spirit. Japan has ample potential to grow while respecting Japan's political ethics of community egalitarianism.

Demographic changes, technological advances, and other reforms cannot wait. It may be the last chance for the revival of the Japan economy. To this end, it is necessary for each and every citizen to understand the problems and take an interest in policies in order to change politics and society. This book will give you some hints on how to do that.

Economic Analyst Hirohiro Koseki

Mr. Katz specializes in the Japanese economy and US-Japan relations, and has written other books including “Japanese Phoenix: The Long Road to Economic Recovery.”

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「失われた30年」に誰がした　リチャード・カッツ著

新陳代謝で日本経済再生を

　長年にわたり日本経済を取材・研究してきた米国人ジャーナリストが、日本経済低迷の構造的原因と再生に必要な処方箋を論じた力作である。経済の現状、歴史的背景、諸外国との比較などを、実際の取材を交えてさまざまな角度から描き出し、中立的・客観的な立場から今までの政策や企業経営の姿勢に忌憚（きたん）のない批判を加え、実現可能な政策提言を行っている。企業の類型を動物に例えるなど、ジャーナリストならではの話法と秀逸な翻訳で、複雑な論点も分かり易（やす）く説明している。

　著者によると、経済システムは環境の変化に適応することが必要だが、日本は1970年代に高度成長が終焉（しゅうえん）して以降、変化への適応が遅れた。「失われた30年」の根本原因はそうした構造的問題にあり、バブル崩壊は蓄積した矛盾が一気に顕在化したにすぎない。経済の再生に最も重要なのは、産業の新陳代謝つまり非効率な企業の淘汰と成長性ある分野での起業の活性化だと著者は指摘する。そのためには、スタートアップ企業への資金的・人的資源のシフトと同時に、そうした構造変化、つまり「創造的破壊」を社会が許容できるような公的セーフティーネットの整備が必要だ。

　にもかかわらず、この30年間の政策は、ショックを和らげ経済的に非効率なセクターを温存しようとするマクロ経済刺激策に重点が置かれてきた。一定の改革は行われたものの、ペースが遅く規模も小さいため、経済の悪化に追いつかなかった。労働市場の規制緩和による非正規労働者の増加など、国民の所得と長期的経済成長にとってマイナスに作用したものもある。

　日本人は決して終身雇用や年功序列に象徴される「保守的で同調を好む」だけの民族ではない。明治維新や戦後の起業ブームによる奇跡的な経済発展の歴史が示すとおり、本来は起業家精神を発揮して繁栄する力を持ち合わせているはずだ。共同体平等主義という日本の政治的倫理観を尊重しながら成長する可能性が日本には充分ある。

　人口構成の変化、テクノロジーの進化など、改革は待ったなしの状況だ。日本経済復活の最後のチャンスかもしれない。そのためには、政治と社会を変えるために国民一人ひとりが問題を理解し、政策への関心を持つ必要がある。本書は、そのためのヒントを与えてくれる。

《評》経済アナリスト　小関　広洋

原題=THE　CONTEST　FOR　JAPAN'S　ECONOMIC　FUTURE（田中恵理香訳、早川書房・3960円）

▼著者の専門は日本経済、日米関係。著書に『不死鳥の日本経済』など。

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