Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Z3's avatar

Regarding the effect of population decline on GDP, should one look more deeply at the changes in composition of the population rather than just at the total population size?

For example, the total population size may not have changed much over 15 years, but it has aged greatly, and older people are likely to spend less and less (apart from on healthcare)?

Also, is the demographic *outlook* not a reason for people to be trying to spend less and save more, knowing how difficult future years will be as the working population collapses?

One could say that the future-looking demographic forecasts are as big a factor influencing current spending patterns as the past demographic changes?

Lastly, when looking at populatiojn size in Japan, do you include foreigners who are living, and often working, in Japan? I expect those numbers will be increasing to offset the falling working population, and will be an increasingly large economic factor, even if they only have temporary residency status.

Expand full comment
Michael Taylor's avatar

It's not just the economy. In fact, profits are eroding (much) quicker than the economy.

https://mtaylor.substack.com/p/japans-evaporating-profits

Expand full comment
5 more comments...

No posts