I’m Speaking In San Francisco (it will be live-streamed)
On Wednesday, March 5th, I’ll be part of a panel sponsored by the Japan Society of Northern California in San Francisco entitled, “The Future of the Japanese Economy: Is the Sun Rising Again?” It will be led off by former Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, speaking online. Then, I, and possibly a third speaker, will make brief presentations in person. This will be followed by a panel discussion amongst each other and the moderator, Japan Society Chair Larry Greenwood, and then with the audience. The event will run from 4 pm to 6 pm (9-11 Thursday morning in Japan). It will be live-streamed and requires registration. To see details and to register, click https://www.usajapan.org/event/future-of-the-japanese-economy/ and then, depending on whether you’re coming in person or streaming, scroll down to either the tab “Register In Person” or “Register Online.”
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Dear Richard:
I admire your chutzpah. Japan loves a foreigner who believes in their future, because they themselves do not. Are you cynical enough to be aspiring to be the next Chalmers Johnson?
I've been in Japan continuously for 40 years, and both my 32-year old son and 25 year old daughter are entrepreneurs, but METI seems to me to be dead as a doornail. They couldn't point their way out of the alligator swamp if one bit them on the ass. Look at the fate of the shotgun marriage between Nissan and Honda. Look at their insanely naive microchip projects. No more picking the winners. These days, METI picks the losers.
At the same time, I wish you the best. Japan needs a cheerleader badly these days.
In 1986, I worked in the 大臣官房企画室of MITI under Sakamoto Harumi室長(at the time, the highest-ranked woman in the Japanese government). I was called in from Todai by a MITI friend I met on the tennis court at Stanford to help with translating the documents for what they said was Japan's first attempt at a truly international advisory committee headed by Murakami Yasusuke. Japan was at the height of its bubbly power, and the conference for which I translated, called 世界の中の日本を考える懇談会」 was strictly half-Japanese and 2/5 white, with a few assorted Asians tossed in for good measure. At the time, America was making lousy cars, and the "Structural Impediments" initiatives were in full swing. By holding the conference, Japan was trying, for the first time in the post-war era, to think about the question "What happens after Pax Americana ends? What can Japan do to keep the post-war regime going"?
To me, this sounds a lot like the situation faced by the Ishiba administration today. The big difference is that it is in much worse economic, demographic, and spiritual state than it was 40
years ago.
I think I have told you before, but for your reference, I got my Stanford M.A. under the direction of Dan Okimoto, who set me up with Sato Seizaburo, Nakasone's "Brain" to research my M.A thesis on Nakasone at Todai. Nakasone loved me for my deep understanding of his history and character, and even proposed that his Jiji Tsuushin 当番記者write a book about me, of all things, entitled 「日本に活を入れる(Nakasone's proposed title).
Looking at my two adult children, both of whom are extremely talented and extremely depressed at the same time, I think the issue is not METI's entrepreneurship-promotion policies, which are doomed to failure, but how to give Japan back its mojo without trying to revive wartime ethics or postwar "shotoku baizo" greed. As far as I can tell, you are the best non-Japanese economist Japan has, so the weight on your shoulders must feel very, very heavy right now.
If I may ask, are you in any way advising the Ishiba government? If not, I would recommend that you insinuate yourself into a position where you can tell him what needs to be done. The cacaphony of Japanese "economists" try to bark up wages despite the dearth of demand is driving me crazy. Please, please give Japan a crash course in the teachings of Adam Smith. If Japan can get its shit together, it might just be able to provide an option to Trump, Putin and China, which we all sorely need. You are in a position to influence the course of history. Do it to it!
Good luck!