On NHK TV, I say Trump Won't Reverse Biden on Nippon Steel

Not Yet decided whether Ishiba Will Raise Steel Issue with Trump

On Monday, NHK TV interviewed me ahead of the Ishiba-Trump summit on whether Trump might reverse Biden’s disapproval of the Nippon Steel purchase of US Steel. I said it was extremely unlikely because there is no benefit for Trump. See https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GPnY48x-MjL0esl6_Q4l8qPEFnUyvq6v/view?usp=sharing and go to minute 4:27.

Meanwhile, as of Thursday in Tokyo, it had not yet been decided whether PM Ishiba would even raise the Nippon Steel issue with Trump, according to a senior official with whom I spoke. Doing so risks conflicting with the overall Japanese policy for dealing with Trump. The strategy for the summit is for Ishiba to avoid saying anything contentious, for Japan to keep a low profile on issues like tariffs, and for Tokyo to find ways to placate Trump.

Interestingly, Trump met US Steel CEO David Burrit at the White House one day before his scheduled summit with Japanese prime minister Shigeru Ishiba. While no details were released, clearly the topic was the attempted buyout by Nippon Steel. While Trump has reversed himself and certain issues before—such as his opposition to cryptocurrency and banning Tik Tok—he has only done so if it benefited him personally, either politically or financially. What would US Steel or Nippon Steel or the Japanese government have to offer Trump to extract a reversal? The fact that Trump took the meeting means it's worthwhile to keep on watching.

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