Sooner rather than later people will have to face up to the acceleration in the cost of producing electricity due to the diminishing difference between energy input required to secure a given energy output as renewables are installed. https://needsofthemany98.substack.com/p/the-energy-cost-of-energy
And secondly the costs of attaching renewables to the grid and paying for non delivery when the grid is fully supplied.
German households pay up to 37 cents per kilowatt hour — more than nine cents above the EU average and about four times the cost of electrical energy in China and the USA.
Katherina Reiche, Germany’s Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy recently remarked that:
“Yes, wind and sun do not send a bill. But the overall system certainly does: [environmental levies], capacity reserves, grid reserves, redispatch costs, grid subsidies, subsidies to lower energy prices — all of this adds up to system costs of more than €36 billion per year. That is €430 for every German citizen.
“We pay almost €3 billion alone for curtailing wind turbines and solar plants because the grid cannot absorb their electricity. There is no other industry that receives guaranteed financing for more than 20 years and is even compensated when its product is not needed. This cannot continue.
“One fact has been suppressed for too long: an energy transition that ignores system costs will ruin the country it claims to save.”
This follows from the need to back up energy generation from renewable sources to the extent of `100% for the time when the renewable services are out on leave. And then pay them not to supply when they do come on line. So the indispensable overheads are crippling, unless you want to shut down your country when then the intermittent sources are unavailable and ramp activity up and down to accommodate the flux in energy supply when the renewable sources come on line.
Patently absurd.
If Japan is a basket case we need to look no further than the Plaza Accord forcing a massive and rapid appreciation of the yen back in the 1980s at the insistence of the US. The Japanese government's forced response—fuelling the economy with cheap money via low interest rates—created a colossal asset bubble. The bursting of this bubble, compounded by policy errors in managing the resulting financial crisis, led to the country's prolonged period of economic stagnation as Japan's manufacturers set up plants overseas to try and preserve their markets. The downside was to Japanese workers. This has been disastrous many fronts. A case of oppression on a grand scale, and Japan has been forced to 'suck it up'. Do they not understand this?
A case can be made that the demand for Net Zero is a Western ploy to maintain hegemony.
Also, I don’t know what the news about the Japanese government providing huge subsidies for fossil fuels is referring to.
What I found is that Japan will expand the use of coal-fired power generation, which will help Japan reduce liquefied natural gas consumption by about 500,000 tons per year. This seems economically beneficial.
any time you see something headlined "energy and freedom" and words like climate change nonsense, you know you are dealing with ideology, not analysis. Coal is filthy and more expensive than renewables and carbon capture is horribly expensive.
Would be interesting to see the nuclear since it seems to me solar really took off around the Fukushima meltdown, so once Japan started to restart their reactors again
Yes, it did take off after 2011 but the nuke lobby had--and still has--illusions about how much nuclear power can be restored. Renewables are now cheaper than restoring some of the plants that would other be available, and much, much cheaper and quicker than nukes.
Rejection of large-scale solar started before Takaichi. With good reasons, it just is wrong to cut trees to put panels.
The real problem perhaps is insufficient support for rooftop, and especially, insufficient correction of incentives for power companies. There's still plenty of room for growth here, as well as over transport infrastructure, and it should be developed there first.
Agree that the argument dependency risk on Chinese panels is so bogus it would be laughable if the consequences weren't so dire. Dinosaur auto and power companies are intent on taking the country with them as they die off, a sort of junshi imposed on the whole nation, and of course politicos are completely happy playing along.
Although I am against more mega solar construction, more needs to be done to encourage roof based solar, and particularly offshore wind power. You are so right about the ammonia stuff- it’s pure green washing.
I would say Isumi and Kyujukuri are viable areas and there is just a lack of will to invest, the zaibatsu finding it easier to keep the fossil fuel buddies happy.
Yeah. Unfortunately offshore wind in Japan must be floating, needs cheaper floaters but nobody's working on that in the West, instead wasting taxpayer money on incremental improvement on oil and gas platforms. The Chinese have unlimited shallow seas for bottom-fixed offshore wind, so won't save us here.
This whole post is about solar electricity generation and doesn’t mention intermittency or batteries at all, and use graphs that show electricity generation and ignores that with 100% solar generation there would be no life after dark. On the bright side, since the most important number is mentioned only in one sentence, is that last year the fossil fuel generation share of electricity globally fell by less than 1% to 86% so we can assume fossil fuels will be eliminated from electricity generation in around 10,000 years.
Yeah, like in the US at least politicos have the excuse that a substantial part of the electorate think they'll be emasculated if they don't burn fuel. Here it's really sheer incompetence and incumbents buying legislation as they please. Takaichi unfortunately has no spine or required understanding of basic physics to resist them.
Sooner rather than later people will have to face up to the acceleration in the cost of producing electricity due to the diminishing difference between energy input required to secure a given energy output as renewables are installed. https://needsofthemany98.substack.com/p/the-energy-cost-of-energy
And secondly the costs of attaching renewables to the grid and paying for non delivery when the grid is fully supplied.
German households pay up to 37 cents per kilowatt hour — more than nine cents above the EU average and about four times the cost of electrical energy in China and the USA.
Katherina Reiche, Germany’s Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy recently remarked that:
“Yes, wind and sun do not send a bill. But the overall system certainly does: [environmental levies], capacity reserves, grid reserves, redispatch costs, grid subsidies, subsidies to lower energy prices — all of this adds up to system costs of more than €36 billion per year. That is €430 for every German citizen.
“We pay almost €3 billion alone for curtailing wind turbines and solar plants because the grid cannot absorb their electricity. There is no other industry that receives guaranteed financing for more than 20 years and is even compensated when its product is not needed. This cannot continue.
“One fact has been suppressed for too long: an energy transition that ignores system costs will ruin the country it claims to save.”
This follows from the need to back up energy generation from renewable sources to the extent of `100% for the time when the renewable services are out on leave. And then pay them not to supply when they do come on line. So the indispensable overheads are crippling, unless you want to shut down your country when then the intermittent sources are unavailable and ramp activity up and down to accommodate the flux in energy supply when the renewable sources come on line.
Patently absurd.
If Japan is a basket case we need to look no further than the Plaza Accord forcing a massive and rapid appreciation of the yen back in the 1980s at the insistence of the US. The Japanese government's forced response—fuelling the economy with cheap money via low interest rates—created a colossal asset bubble. The bursting of this bubble, compounded by policy errors in managing the resulting financial crisis, led to the country's prolonged period of economic stagnation as Japan's manufacturers set up plants overseas to try and preserve their markets. The downside was to Japanese workers. This has been disastrous many fronts. A case of oppression on a grand scale, and Japan has been forced to 'suck it up'. Do they not understand this?
A case can be made that the demand for Net Zero is a Western ploy to maintain hegemony.
What a coincidence — I just recently read an article praising Japan’s energy policy, and its conclusion was exactly the opposite of yours.
https://energysecurityfreedom.substack.com/p/reliable-energy-represents-the-rising
Also, I don’t know what the news about the Japanese government providing huge subsidies for fossil fuels is referring to.
What I found is that Japan will expand the use of coal-fired power generation, which will help Japan reduce liquefied natural gas consumption by about 500,000 tons per year. This seems economically beneficial.
any time you see something headlined "energy and freedom" and words like climate change nonsense, you know you are dealing with ideology, not analysis. Coal is filthy and more expensive than renewables and carbon capture is horribly expensive.
This is definitive: https://energysecurityfreedom.substack.com/p/kathryn-porter-shows-why-the-supposed
Would be interesting to see the nuclear since it seems to me solar really took off around the Fukushima meltdown, so once Japan started to restart their reactors again
Yes, it did take off after 2011 but the nuke lobby had--and still has--illusions about how much nuclear power can be restored. Renewables are now cheaper than restoring some of the plants that would other be available, and much, much cheaper and quicker than nukes.
Rejection of large-scale solar started before Takaichi. With good reasons, it just is wrong to cut trees to put panels.
The real problem perhaps is insufficient support for rooftop, and especially, insufficient correction of incentives for power companies. There's still plenty of room for growth here, as well as over transport infrastructure, and it should be developed there first.
Agree that the argument dependency risk on Chinese panels is so bogus it would be laughable if the consequences weren't so dire. Dinosaur auto and power companies are intent on taking the country with them as they die off, a sort of junshi imposed on the whole nation, and of course politicos are completely happy playing along.
Don't need to cut trees if you use abandoned land and agrovoltaics
Another great piece. Sad to see dinosaurs stick to prehistoric tech, isn’t it. Doesn’t stop the rest of us from moving forward though.
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Although I am against more mega solar construction, more needs to be done to encourage roof based solar, and particularly offshore wind power. You are so right about the ammonia stuff- it’s pure green washing.
I would say Isumi and Kyujukuri are viable areas and there is just a lack of will to invest, the zaibatsu finding it easier to keep the fossil fuel buddies happy.
Yeah. Unfortunately offshore wind in Japan must be floating, needs cheaper floaters but nobody's working on that in the West, instead wasting taxpayer money on incremental improvement on oil and gas platforms. The Chinese have unlimited shallow seas for bottom-fixed offshore wind, so won't save us here.
So rooftop it must be.
Rooftop and abandoned land
This whole post is about solar electricity generation and doesn’t mention intermittency or batteries at all, and use graphs that show electricity generation and ignores that with 100% solar generation there would be no life after dark. On the bright side, since the most important number is mentioned only in one sentence, is that last year the fossil fuel generation share of electricity globally fell by less than 1% to 86% so we can assume fossil fuels will be eliminated from electricity generation in around 10,000 years.
I've discussed the role of batteries in many previous posts, e.g.. https://richardkatz.substack.com/p/70-renewable-energy-by-2035-physics?utm_source=publication-search. As for your last sentence, as you can see from the curve of the chart, the drop is nonlinear and it fell from 68% to 57% globally
Wow. I thought the U.S. was unique in pushing against the global trend. Makes even less sense for Japan. Let’s protect abandoned farmland, huh.
Yeah, like in the US at least politicos have the excuse that a substantial part of the electorate think they'll be emasculated if they don't burn fuel. Here it's really sheer incompetence and incumbents buying legislation as they please. Takaichi unfortunately has no spine or required understanding of basic physics to resist them.
Takaichi shares the ideology of the anti-solar types