Unpopular Kishida Could Be On Way Out Soon

JIJI press approval rating down to 21%

I don’t normally post two days in a row, but Jiji Press just announced that PM Kishida’s approval rating fell to 21%. Support for the LDP fell to 19.1%. Historically, when a PM’s approval rating falls that low, resignation soon follows. So, we need to see if other polls confirm this trend. The closer Japan gets to an election, the more likely is a resignation as backbenchers afraid of losing their seats insist on a replacement. Luckily for Kishida, the next Lower House election need not be held for two years (October 2025).

I have long wondered why poll ratings for Kishida and for the LDP held up as long as they have, given his “all promises; no action” approach to governance. I assumed it was because voters saw no viable alternative among either the opposition parties or within the LDP. But, for whatever reason, voter patience has now run out. Perhaps it’s the inflation. Whatever the particular trigger, the proportion of people who said that they do not support Kishida because they hold no expectations for him grew 5.8 points from October to 31.8%.

This is the first time approval for a PM or the LDP has fallen this low since the LDP returned to power in 2012. Here’s the Jiji piece: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/11/17/japan/politics/ldp-kishida-approval-falling/

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