Video Interview on TBS: Trump Trade War; Reviving Japan

Progress Report On Resurrecting Entrepreneurship

TBS Cross Dig—a premium video news service by Tokyo Broadcasting System and Bloomberg—just released an April 9th interview with me discussing Trump’s trade war as well as the themes in the just-released Japanese translation of my book The Contest for Japan’s Economic Future, under the title: Who Caused the Lost 30 Years? The Tipping Point of the Japanese Economy. The interview is in English with Japanese subtitles.

Even in this rapidly moving situation, I believe my analysis of Trump and his motivation holds up. However, due to the fierce market reaction, I think Japan is in a stronger negotiating position than it was when I did the interview. The interview took place just one day before Trump put a 90-day pause on his “reciprocal tariffs” due to the frenzy in the bond, stock market, and currency markets. Tokyo is in no hurry to accept a bad deal. And why should it? Trump is offering no incentives. According to NHK, during last week’s talks, the Trump administration said it would not exempt Japan from its huge tariffs on sectors like autos. Hence, there is little pressure from sectors targeted by Trump, including autos, for Tokyo to cave. Consequently, the Ishiba administration is offering only minimal concessions. In my next post, I will elaborate on the power balance in the talks.

The portion of the interview on entrepreneurship shows why Japan has the best opportunity in a generation to have a genuine recovery by resurrecting the kind of entrepreneurial effervescence it enjoyed in a high-growth era. The host and I discuss the positive trends in Japan, as well as the obstacles. In a series of talks to audiences of big business, politicians, and officials in Tokyo in the past few weeks, I found a positive reaction to this message.

Here are the main topics:

00:00 Program start

01:24 Trump’s irrationality and self-delusion propel his trade war

03:18 What does Trump want

04;55 Business leader reaction to trade war; American voter reaction

07:27 Impact on the Japanese economy

08:56 How Japan should respond

13:49 Even former Prime Minister Abe could not have stopped Trump

15:41 Japan has the opportunity of a generation for a genuine economic revival: generational change and technology

19:59 Gazelles—high-growth innovative new companies-- can help change Japan

24:37 Technology reduces the power of giant companies in Japan and increases their need to partner with innovative gazelles

27:33 Financial barriers that hinder the entrepreneurial revival

28:56 Assessing the government’s efforts regarding entrepreneurship

31:36 Fear of Failure is not cultural but reflects the fact that rewards for success are too low and penalties for failure are too high

34:19 Entrepreneurs have a different perspective on where the risk lies

To see the video, click here.

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