14 Comments

BOJ wont raise interest rates becos of high debt. Yen is dependent on the FED to cut interest rate to halt its fall.

Expand full comment

It's very easy to say "don't panic," unless you get paid in JPY and your salary has been static for years. Japanese households are net importers, and macro explanations aren't going to make them feel better when their micro situation gets worse daily.

In my own household's case, everyone here gets paid in JPY, and I personally am dependent on imports for many basic clothing items in my size as well as the raw materials of my trade (viz. books and periodicals published in US, UK and Europe). Even simple pleasures like going out for coffee and a nosh or a sweet have gotten more expensive far faster than the rate of inflation; once the inhibition on hiking prices was broken, they come much frequently. Not a cause for panic, but adds up quickly and changes daily.

I'm leaving out things like agricultural produce, which even when domestically grown has some imported inputs (e.g. petroleum for transport/distribution); produce prices are a severe problem in places like Tokyo. We're sending care packages to friends and family there continually, since we live closer to the point of production.

Reporting from an aerial view in NY and experiencing on the ground in Japan are quite different things.

Expand full comment

Just do a USD yen carry trade. The interest rate differential should mitgate your cost of living.

It's very difficult for BOJ to intervene all the time.

Expand full comment

Don't panic, just get rid of your yen for good stocks, physical gold, commodities—real tangible assets! This is what your wealthy class is doing. Currencies should only be used for transactions, not savings! Use research firms like Gavekal for guidance, they know Asia very well.

What happens when Japanese society looses faith in its paper money? The BOJ is out of control propping up the US dollar at your expense! https://archive.ph/urG7A

Expand full comment

A.J. This reads as if you had not read what I wrote. I very clearly stated not to panic about a collapse of the yen's value and that the real danger from the weakening yen is continued corrosion of living standard, which you describe so eloquently. I then gave the example of higher import prices wiping out real wage gains.

Expand full comment

Thanks for the clear summary.

Why is the Bank of Japan being so secretive about its likely currency intervention?

Expand full comment

It's actually the Ministry of Finance that makes the decision. The BOJ just executes it. The MOF and BOJ believe that catching traders by surprise leads them to be cautious about betting too strongly in one direction when a surprise intervention could result in big losses. So, even after the fact, they don't like to say how much until the official reporting is in.

Expand full comment

Thank you for your quick reply. Got it. I suppose some could make millions of dollars by getting advance knowledge of when the MOF would tip its hat.

Expand full comment

That’s right. It’s 3 steps back and a trot forward!

Expand full comment

No problem. I will send it just now.

Expand full comment

Hello Richard, the link to your book on Amazon doesn’t easily display at redirection. One has to type it although its no problem if one really wants it and they can type, thought you might like to know and correct if possible

Expand full comment

I did not get your screen shot. please try again.

Expand full comment

Thanks. Can you email a screenshot of what you get at rbkatz@rbatz.com. I really appreciate it.

Expand full comment

Hello Richard, my initial mail shows it was sent and delivered to your mail. And now google shows the email is having temporary difficulty in trying to resend it.

I am sorry for the delay

Expand full comment