I believe that the BOJ knows that any sharp movements will be attributed to them, being vague and non-committal will help introduce some doubt. Doubt is also why they likely intervened after a soft US CPI report, to give observers the impression that it could be algo trading or unwinding of interest rate bets. I believe that this doubt will help keep the JPY strength for abit longer than expected.
First, a technical point. The BOJ just executives the intervention. The MOF makes the decision. There is little doubt whether intervention occurred because traders can see data on the BOJ books pretty quickly. As for your substantive argument, I believe the MOF moved after the US because it shifted to "leaning with the wind," i.e. intervening when the yen was recovering for other reasons and then repeating it. This is the reverse of earlier moves "leaning against the wind" when the yen weakened to certain unannounced red lines. I agree the MOF wants to keep traders wondering when it will next move and how much. Your last sentence makes sense to me. But we'll see.
I believe that the BOJ knows that any sharp movements will be attributed to them, being vague and non-committal will help introduce some doubt. Doubt is also why they likely intervened after a soft US CPI report, to give observers the impression that it could be algo trading or unwinding of interest rate bets. I believe that this doubt will help keep the JPY strength for abit longer than expected.
First, a technical point. The BOJ just executives the intervention. The MOF makes the decision. There is little doubt whether intervention occurred because traders can see data on the BOJ books pretty quickly. As for your substantive argument, I believe the MOF moved after the US because it shifted to "leaning with the wind," i.e. intervening when the yen was recovering for other reasons and then repeating it. This is the reverse of earlier moves "leaning against the wind" when the yen weakened to certain unannounced red lines. I agree the MOF wants to keep traders wondering when it will next move and how much. Your last sentence makes sense to me. But we'll see.
your perspective makes sense! we will see how things shake up