EVs Help China Do To Japan What Japan Did To The US In The 1970s
Richard, this is a brilliant piece, absolutely in line with The Innovator’s Dilemma. Your data-driven arguments are much appreciated. How many other successful companies face similar risks because they attempt to protect their past successes? The EV shift is one cataclysm; AI is another, where its effect on advertising holding companies will be dramatic (their business model involves being paid “by the head” rather than “for the work.” When AI eliminates the “heads,” what then?
Just back from the Philippines, I visited a few car dealerships and chatted about cars with various people. All cars/SUVs and pickups are imported, Toyota dominates the market (60+% share) but primarily with cars imported from Indonesia (and Honda from Thailand). Ditto Fords, I saw a lot of Ranger pickups, again not imported from the US.
I visited dealerships for 2 different Chinese brands, I saw a few on the road but Changan for example only opened their first dealership during the pandemic and so are behind where they planned to be. Geely and MG (SAIC) started earlier. But again, they are competing not with exports from Japan but with exports from SEA.
Thanks for an excellent analysis, as always. However, one small correction: "The Mirai, Toyota’s fuel cell car, has sold only 11,000 cars worldwide since its introduction almost a decade ago." That is the Mirai's sales figure for the US, not worldwide. Worldwide, Mirai has sold 22,000 cars, not impressive at all, but twice as many. https://global.toyota/en/company/profile/production-sales-figures/202211.html